AZ-1 House polls
Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+2.8the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-01 (7 days old)
EditionOct 8the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- poll in the average · area is its weight in it
- not in the average · shown, not counted
- poll average, day by day · each day from the polls fielded by then, ending on today's figure
- 30 days before this edition
The line is the polls’ average as it stood on each day: every poll at the margin it was published, those fielded by then, each weighted as of that day. It starts at the first poll it counts, steps on a poll's own field date and not before, and ends on today's figure. Each dot is a poll’s published margin; the line is the average of those margins. Hover for each day's figure.
Every poll on file · 4
newest first1 in the poll average · 3 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategicGeneral · House | 400 LV | D+2.8Amish Shah 44.4Jay Feely 41.6 | 2d ago | counted once · listed twice | Poll document | |
| ●FirstStrategic Communications and Public AffairsGeneral | 400 RV | D+2.8Amish Shah 44.4Jay Feely 41.6Don't know 14 | 2d ago | 0.50 | Poll document | |
| GrayhouseGeneral | 500 LV | Generic Democrat 43Gina Swoboda 40Don't know 17+1 other release | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| Clarity Campaign LabsGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 676 LV | Generic Republican 46Generic Democrat 45 | not in the average | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-10-08. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.