South Dakota

Larry Rhoden, the Republican governor, won his first full term by 27.0 points over Democrat Dan Ahlers, after serving out the remainder of Kristi Noem’s term.¹ Republican Mike Rounds won the U.S. Senate race with 60.5% of the vote against an independent, Brian L Bengs. Marty Jackley kept the state’s one U.S. House seat for the Republicans by 28.0 points, and Republicans won the three other statewide offices in our count: Heather Baxter for secretary of state, Melissa Hull for treasurer and Catherine Barranco for auditor. None of the six seats changed party.

Donald Trump carried South Dakota by 29.2 points in 2024, and Rhoden’s margin in the governor’s race, the contest set against the presidential vote here, was 2.2 points smaller. Both candidates drew fewer votes than their party’s 2024 nominee, Rhoden more so: Ahlers drew 76 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won here, Rhoden 71 for every 100 of Trump’s. Turnout, measured by the most-voted contest, was 87% of 2022’s and 71% of the 2024 presidential vote. In the U.S. House race, the margin went from R+44.1 in the 2024 House race to R+28.0 this year.

Nearly all of the movement came from one corner of the state. The Sioux Falls metro area, which casts 32% of the vote, went from R+18.4 to R+11.9, a move of 6.5 points toward the Democrats. The Rapid City metro area, with 18% of the vote, hardly moved: R+32.6 in 2024, R+32.3 this year. The small towns and rural counties, which cast 48%, close to half the total, moved 0.2 of a point toward the Republicans, from R+34.7 to R+34.8.

Minnehaha County, in the Sioux Falls area, cast 22% of the state’s vote and moved more than any other large county, from R+12.7 to R+5.2. Lincoln County, also in the Sioux Falls area, went from R+26.5 to R+21.8. Hughes County, in the Pierre area, moved nearly as far as Minnehaha in the other direction, from R+30.1 to R+37.6, on 6,519 votes to Minnehaha’s 66,466. It was one of 34 counties, more than half of the state’s 66, that moved toward the Republicans. No county changed sides.

No office and no chamber changed hands. Republicans keep the governor’s office and supermajorities in both chambers, South Dakota Public Broadcasting reported.¹ Our count could not read most legislative districts. South Dakota Searchlight’s count from November 4 gives Republicans 33 of 35 Senate seats, one more than before, and 59 of 70 House seats, six fewer. Democrats hold 12 of the 105 seats, up from eight. Their gains, all in Sioux Falls-area districts, were the first time the party gained legislative seats in a general election since 2008, Searchlight reported. Evangeline Poor Bear, elected to the House, is the first independent to win a legislative seat since 2010, both outlets reported.^{1, 2} A veto override takes two-thirds of all members of each house, and Republicans remain far above that line in both.³

What changed is who leads the majority. Both Republican caucuses replaced their leaders after the election. KOTA described business-focused Republicans taking over from the populist leaders chosen after the fight over a carbon pipeline: Casey Crabtree returns as Senate majority leader, Taylor Rehfeldt becomes House majority leader and Mike Stevens was nominated for speaker. Sen. Amber Hulse, the incoming assistant majority leader, told the station: “it’s kind of a different — I guess you could say — ideology of Republicans.” The constitution requires a two-thirds vote on bills that appropriate money, KOTA reported, and Rep. Nicole Uhre-Balk, a Rapid City Democrat, said the party’s 10 House seats could give it more influence as a voting bloc when the Republican supermajority divides on a bill. Senate Democrats are down to two, Liz Larson and Erik Muckey, both of Sioux Falls. Larson, who remains minority leader, said the caucus will rely on bipartisan agreements.⁴

The Legislature draws its own districts. The constitution requires a new apportionment every ten years, finished by December 1 of the year it is due, and gives the job to the state Supreme Court if lawmakers fail to do it.⁵ Voters fill the secretary of state’s office at the same election as the governor’s. Heather Baxter, a Republican, won it by 22.3 points over Democrat Terrence Davis and Libertarian Tamara Lesnar.^{6, 7} Rhoden will deliver his budget address for fiscal 2028 to a joint session of the Legislature on December 8.¹

All four questions on the statewide ballot were constitutional amendments, and an amendment is adopted only when a majority of the votes cast on it approve.⁸ Two failed. Amendment I, which would have ended expanded Medicaid coverage if federal funding for it fell below 90 percent, drew 44.2% in favor. Amendment L, which would have raised the vote needed to adopt a constitutional amendment from a majority to 60 percent, drew 42.4%.^{1, 6}

Two passed, and both finished just above the 60 percent line that Amendment L would have set. Amendment J, which writes into the constitution that a voter must be a U.S. citizen, drew 61.5%. Amendment K, which creates a trust fund from the state’s unclaimed property money, drew 60.9%.^{1, 6}

The county that moved furthest toward the Democrats kept its election administrator. In Minnehaha County, Auditor Leah Anderson was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote over challenger Curt Deedrich. The auditor runs the county’s elections, and Minnehaha and Lincoln counties together cast close to a third of the state’s ballots, Sioux Falls Simplified reported.⁹

Republicans won again in all six of the seats in our count that they held, and none was close. Their narrowest win was the Senate race, where Rounds finished 21.0 points ahead of an independent; against a Democrat the narrowest was Heather Baxter’s for secretary of state. Republicans carried 61 of the 66 counties in the governor’s race, and Pennington County, in the Rapid City area, stayed at R+25.5, within a point of its 2024 margin. In the Legislature, Republicans added a Senate seat while losing six in the House, and 52 Republican seats had no opponent, Searchlight reported.^{1, 2}

The Senate seat held by Republican John Thune will be on the ballot in 2028, in a state that voted R+29.2 for president in 2024 and R+27.0 for governor this year. The governor’s office will not be. Governors are elected to four-year terms in nonpresidential years, and no one may be elected to more than two consecutive terms.¹⁰ The legislative districts are next due to be redrawn in 2031.⁵

The legislative totals are provisional. Reports from November 4 listed possible recounts in Senate Districts 11 and 12 and House Districts 3, 9 and 11.^{2, 11} In Senate District 11, Republican Chris Karr had 4,209 votes to Democrat Aaron Matson’s 4,175 on election night. In District 12, Republican Kari Shanard-Koenders had 4,009 to Democrat Joe Zweifel’s 3,877. Sioux Falls Simplified wrote that Democrats could gain two more Sioux Falls-area seats depending on how recounts came out.¹¹