Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
YouGov
Ranked 14 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 174 general-election polls this cycle (number 1 of 251 pollsters by volume), 19 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 19
- Average miss
- 5.2
- Leaned
- R+4.6
- Leader won
- 87%
- Vs. field
- +0.2
- Score
- +0.1
Leaned is over 18 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 19 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 19 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 4.8 | R+4.8 | 100% | −0.3 | 95 |
| Senate | 9 | 5.0 | R+4.8 | 94% | +0.3 | 42 |
| Governor | 9 | 5.5 | R+4.3 | 78% | +0.1 | 37 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Its final margins sat 2.0 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 3.1 (12 polls): a ratio of 0.65. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 27 to Oct 30 · 3,908 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 53, Republicans 44; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+9.0 | D+13.8 | R+4.8 | 5.1 | Release |
| Colorado SenateOct 9 to Oct 20 · 710 likely votersJohn Hickenlooper 57, Mark Baisley 39; count 60.5 to 35.0 | D+18.0 | D+25.5 | R+7.5 | 4.0 | Releasefor University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab |
| Iowa SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,016 likely votersJosh Turek 50, Ashley Hinson 49; count 50.5 to 46.3 | D+1.0 | D+4.2 | R+3.2 | 3.8 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,086 likely votersAdam Hamilton 50, Roger Marshall 49; count 51.0 to 46.0 | D+1.0 | D+5.1 | R+4.1 | 2.9 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,501 likely votersTroy Jackson 52, Susan Collins 47; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+5.0 | D+6.1 | R+1.1 | 3.4 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,088 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 51, Mike Rogers 47; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+4.0 | D+7.0 | R+3.0 | 2.8 | Release |
| North Carolina SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,123 likely votersRoy Cooper 55, Michael Whatley 44; count 58.8 to 39.0 | D+11.0 | D+19.7 | R+8.7 | 8.5 | Release |
| Nebraska SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,974 likely votersPete Ricketts 49, Dan Osborn 49; count 50.1 to 43.9 | Even | Ricketts +6.2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,084 likely votersSherrod Brown 50, Jon Husted 48; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+2.0 | D+4.8 | R+2.9 | 2.5 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,138 likely votersJames Talarico 51, Ken Paxton 47; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+4.0 | D+12.1 | R+8.1 | 8.8 | Release |
| Colorado governorOct 9 to Oct 20 · 710 likely votersPhil Weiser 57, Victor Marx 37; count 61.1 to 33.2 | D+20.0 | D+27.9 | R+7.9 | 9.2 | Releasefor University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab |
| Florida governorOct 2 to Oct 15 · 825 registered votersDavid Jolly 42, Byron Donalds 50; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+8.0 | R+1.3 | R+6.7 | 3.0 | Releasefor Univision |
| Iowa governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,019 likely votersRob Sand 53, Zach Lahn 46; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+7.0 | D+11.1 | R+4.1 | 4.2 | Release |
| Kansas governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,085 likely votersCindy Holscher 49, Ty Masterson 50; count 50.4 to 49.6 | R+1.0 | D+0.7 | R+1.7 | 3.5 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,500 likely votersHannah Pingree 53, Bobby Charles 45; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+8.0 | D+16.9 | R+8.9 | 6.6 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,086 likely votersJocelyn Benson 52, John James 46; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+6.0 | D+10.8 | R+4.8 | 2.8 | Release |
| Nebraska governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,974 likely votersLynne Walz 47, Jim Pillen 50; count 42.5 to 50.5 | R+3.0 | R+8.0 | D+5.0 | 5.5 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,082 likely votersAmy Acton 52, Vivek Ramaswamy 46; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+6.0 | D+7.9 | R+1.9 | 4.4 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 2,139 likely votersGina Hinojosa 49, Greg Abbott 50; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+1.0 | D+7.1 | R+8.1 | 9.1 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Colorado Senate · Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · North Carolina Senate · Nebraska Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · Colorado governor · Florida governor · Iowa governor · Kansas governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · Nebraska governor · Ohio governor · Texas governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: YouGov on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.