Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Workbench Strategy
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 4 general-election polls this cycle (number 131 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race. 100% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 2.0
- Leaned
- D+2.0
- Leader won
- 67%
- Vs. field
- −1.9
- Score
- −0.7
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 0.9 | D+0.9 | 100% | −2.4 | 2 |
| Governor | 2 | 2.6 | D+2.6 | 50% | −1.7 | 2 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida SenateOct 18 to Oct 22 · 800 likely voters · Democratic sponsorAngie Nixon 47, Ashley Moody 49; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+2.0 | R+2.9 | D+0.9 | 3.2 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 18 to Oct 22 · 800 likely voters · Democratic sponsorDavid Jolly 48, Byron Donalds 46; count 48.7 to 50.0 | D+2.0 | R+1.3 | D+3.3 | 3.2 | Release |
| Oklahoma governorOct 8 to Oct 13 · 600 likely voters · Democratic sponsorCyndi Munson 45, Mike Mazzei 49; count 45.9 to 51.9 | R+4.0 | R+6.0 | D+2.0 | 5.5† | Release |
Releases: Florida Senate · Florida governor · Oklahoma governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
3 of these 3 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.