Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
VoteNexus
Scored, not ranked: 4 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 5 general-election polls this cycle (number 117 of 251 pollsters by volume), 4 of them a final poll of a race. 100% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 4
- Average miss
- 8.9
- Leaned
- D+3.8
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +3.5
- Score
- +1.5
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 4 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 16.9 | — | 100% | +12.0 | 1 |
| Governor | 1 | 5.7 | D+5.7 | 100% | +0.2 | 1 |
| House districts | 2 | 6.5 | D+2.9 | 100% | +0.8 | 3 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho SenateOct 21 to Oct 22 · 700 likely voters · partisan sponsorJim Risch 49, Todd Achilles 43; count 56.5 to 33.6 | Risch +6.0 | Risch +22.9 | 16.9 | 5.0† | Releasefor Knock Every Door PAC |
| Idaho governorOct 21 to Oct 22 · 700 likely voters · partisan sponsorTerri Pickens 30, Brad Little 49; count 32.3 to 56.9 | R+19.0 | R+24.6 | D+5.7 | 5.5† | Releasefor Knock Every Door PAC |
| Idaho 1st DistrictOct 21 to Oct 22 · likely voters · partisan sponsorKaylee Peterson 26, Russ Fulcher 52; count 28.9 to 64.2 | R+26.0 | R+35.3 | D+9.3 | 5.6† | Releasefor Knock Every Door PAC |
| Idaho 2nd DistrictOct 21 to Oct 22 · likely voters · partisan sponsorEllie Gilbreath 31, Mike Simpson 46; count 40.3 to 51.7 | R+15.0 | R+11.4 | R+3.6 | 5.6† | Releasefor Knock Every Door PAC |
Releases: Idaho Senate · Idaho governor · Idaho 1st District · Idaho 2nd District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
4 of these 4 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.