Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Victory Insights
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 5 general-election polls this cycle (number 116 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 6.3
- Leaned
- R+6.3
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +2.5
- Score
- +0.7
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 6.8 | R+6.8 | 100% | +1.5 | 3 |
| Governor | 1 | 5.9 | R+5.9 | 100% | +3.5 | 2 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota SenateOct 21 to Oct 22 · 1,194 likely voters · Republican sponsorPeggy Flanagan 47.8, Michele Tafoya 44.4; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+3.4 | D+10.2 | R+6.8 | 5.3 | Release |
| Minnesota governorOct 21 to Oct 22 · 1,194 likely voters · Republican sponsorAmy Klobuchar 50.1, Lisa Demuth 43.1; count 55.5 to 42.6 | D+7.0 | D+12.9 | R+5.9 | 2.4 | Release |
Releases: Minnesota Senate · Minnesota governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
2 of these 2 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.