Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab
Ranked 25 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 9 general-election polls this cycle (number 75 of 251 pollsters by volume), 7 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 7
- Average miss
- 9.4
- Leaned
- R+12.5
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +2.6
- Score
- +1.6
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 7 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| House districts | 7 | 9.4 | R+12.5 | 100% | +2.6 | 9 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California 1st DistrictOct 22 to Oct 28 · 439 likely votersMike McGuire 54, James Gallagher 40; count 57.1 to 42.9 | D+14.0 | D+14.2 | R+0.2 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive · for University of Southern California Center for the Political Future |
| California 6th DistrictOct 22 to Oct 28 · 439 likely votersRichard Pan 55, Kevin Kiley 43; count 59.2 to 40.8 | Pan +12.0 | Pan +18.4 | 6.4 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive · for University of Southern California Center for the Political Future |
| California 7th DistrictOct 28 to Nov 1 · 442 likely votersDoris Matsui 49, Mai Vang 39; count 53.3 to 46.7 | Matsui +10.0 | Matsui +6.6 | 3.4 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| California 11th DistrictOct 16 to Oct 19 · 454 likely votersScott Wiener 51, Connie Chan 44; count 53.3 to 46.7 | Wiener +7.0 | Wiener +6.7 | 0.3 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| California 22nd DistrictOct 22 to Oct 28 · 356 likely votersRandy Villegas 54, David Valadao 44; count 67.9 to 32.1 | D+10.0 | D+35.8 | R+25.8 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| California 34th DistrictOct 16 to Oct 24 · 423 likely votersAngela Gonzales-Torres 51, Jimmy Gomez 45; count 62.1 to 37.9 | Gonzales-Torres +6.0 | Gonzales-Torres +24.2 | 18.2 | 5.3† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| California 48th DistrictOct 22 to Oct 27 · 474 likely votersMarni von Wilpert 52, Jim Desmond 44; count 59.7 to 40.3 | D+8.0 | D+19.5 | R+11.5 | 15.5 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
Releases: California 1st District · California 6th District · California 7th District · California 11th District · California 22nd District · California 34th District · California 48th District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.