Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Ranked 18 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 66 general-election polls this cycle (number 5 of 251 pollsters by volume), 14 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 14
- Average miss
- 5.7
- Leaned
- R+2.0
- Leader won
- 89%
- Vs. field
- +0.7
- Score
- +0.6
Leaned is over 13 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 14 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 4 | 5.4 | R+3.9 | 100% | +0.9 | 23 |
| Governor | 6 | 8.1 | R+0.3 | 75% | +3.2 | 27 |
| House districts | 4 | 2.5 | R+2.2 | 100% | −3.2 | 16 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 877 likely votersEdward J. Markey 53, John Deaton 32; count 63.4 to 32.1 | D+21.0 | D+31.3 | R+10.3 | 2.7 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Maine SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,633 likely votersTroy Jackson 54, Susan Collins 45; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+9.0 | D+6.1 | D+2.9 | 3.3 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| New Hampshire SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 2,035 likely votersChris Pappas 54, John E. Sununu 42; count 55.9 to 42.1 | D+12.0 | D+13.8 | R+1.8 | 6.9 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Rhode Island SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 753 likely votersJohn F. Reed 63, Raymond T. McKay 32; count 66.8 to 29.3 | D+31.0 | D+37.5 | R+6.5 | 5.0† | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive |
| Connecticut governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 811 likely votersNed Lamont 54, Ryan Fazio 41; count 59.6 to 40.4 | D+13.0 | D+19.1 | R+6.2 | 5.4† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Massachusetts governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 894 likely votersMaura Healey 55, Michael Roger Minogue 36; count 62.0 to 34.7 | D+19.0 | D+27.3 | R+8.3 | 2.7 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Maine governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,648 likely votersHannah Pingree 51, Bobby Charles 40; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+11.0 | D+16.9 | R+5.9 | 6.9 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| New Hampshire governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 2,026 likely votersCinde Warmington 48, Kelly Ayotte 48; count 47.0 to 51.4 | Even | R+4.4 | D+4.4 | 3.4 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Rhode Island governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 747 likely votersHelena Buonanno Foulkes 55, Kenneth Block 34; count 57.7 to 27.8 | Foulkes +21.0 | Foulkes +30.0 | 9.0 | 5.4† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Vermont governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,164 likely votersAmanda Janoo 51, Phil Scott 43; count 45.8 to 52.4 | D+8.0 | R+6.6 | D+14.6 | 5.4† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Maine 1st DistrictOct 27 to Oct 31 · 839 likely votersChellie Pingree 65, Ronald Russell 32; count 66.1 to 33.9 | D+33.0 | D+32.2 | D+0.8 | 5.7† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Maine 2nd DistrictOct 27 to Oct 31 · 793 likely votersMatthew Dunlap 47, Paul LePage 52; count 49.2 to 50.8 | R+5.0 | R+1.6 | R+3.4 | 5.7† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| New Hampshire 1st DistrictOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,029 likely votersStefany Shaheen 56, Anthony DiLorenzo 43; count 57.0 to 42.9 | D+13.0 | D+14.1 | R+1.1 | 5.7† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| New Hampshire 2nd DistrictOct 27 to Oct 31 · 997 likely votersMaggie Goodlander 56, Lily Tang Williams 41; count 58.8 to 38.8 | D+15.0 | D+20.0 | R+5.0 | 5.7† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
Releases: Massachusetts Senate · Maine Senate · New Hampshire Senate · Rhode Island Senate · Connecticut governor · Massachusetts governor · Maine governor · New Hampshire governor · Rhode Island governor · Vermont governor · Maine 1st District · Maine 2nd District · New Hampshire 1st District · New Hampshire 2nd District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: University of New Hampshire Survey Center on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.