Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 5 general-election polls this cycle (number 115 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 10.1
- Leaned
- R+10.1
- Leader won
- 50%
- Vs. field
- +1.3
- Score
- +0.3
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 10.1 | R+10.1 | 100% | +1.4 | 2 |
| Governor | 1 | 10.1 | R+10.1 | 0% | +1.1 | 2 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas SenateOct 10 to Oct 14 · 2,000 likely votersJames Talarico 48, Ken Paxton 46; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+2.0 | D+12.1 | R+10.1 | 8.7 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 10 to Oct 14 · 2,000 likely votersGina Hinojosa 46, Greg Abbott 49; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+3.0 | D+7.1 | R+10.1 | 9.0 | Release |
Releases: Texas Senate · Texas governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.