Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Research Co.
Ranked 19 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 25 general-election polls this cycle (number 28 of 251 pollsters by volume), 21 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 21
- Average miss
- 5.9
- Leaned
- R+5.5
- Leader won
- 95%
- Vs. field
- +0.7
- Score
- +0.6
Leaned is over 21 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 21 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| Senate | 9 | 6.6 | R+6.6 | 100% | +1.4 | 9 |
| Governor | 12 | 5.3 | R+4.6 | 92% | +0.1 | 14 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Its final margins sat 2.3 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 4.8 (10 polls): a ratio of 0.47. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersJohn Hickenlooper 57, Mark Baisley 35; count 60.5 to 35.0 | D+22.0 | D+25.5 | R+3.5 | 6.0 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersAngie Nixon 44, Ashley Moody 51; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+7.0 | R+2.9 | R+4.1 | 3.0 | Release |
| Georgia SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersJon Ossoff 52, Mike Collins 42; count 59.0 to 41.0 | D+10.0 | D+18.1 | R+8.1 | 9.1 | Release |
| Illinois SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersJuliana Stratton 53, Don Tracy 41; count 61.9 to 36.5 | D+12.0 | D+25.3 | R+13.3 | 5.0† | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 48, Mike Rogers 46; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+2.0 | D+7.0 | R+5.0 | 2.7 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersPeggy Flanagan 48, Michele Tafoya 43; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+5.0 | D+10.2 | R+5.2 | 5.5 | Release |
| New Mexico SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersBen Ray Luján 56, Larry Marker 37; count 63.3 to 36.7 | D+19.0 | D+26.5 | R+7.5 | 5.0† | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersSherrod Brown 45, Jon Husted 44; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+1.0 | D+4.8 | R+3.9 | 2.5 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersJames Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 46; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+3.0 | D+12.1 | R+9.1 | 8.7 | Release |
| Colorado governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersPhil Weiser 53, Victor Marx 38; count 61.1 to 33.2 | D+15.0 | D+27.9 | R+12.9 | 7.6 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersDavid Jolly 44, Byron Donalds 48; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+4.0 | R+1.3 | R+2.7 | 3.2 | Release |
| Georgia governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersKeisha Lance Bottoms 46, Rick Jackson 45; count 54.3 to 45.7 | D+1.0 | D+8.7 | R+7.7 | 9.0 | Release |
| Illinois governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersJB Pritzker 57, Darren Bailey 36; count 60.6 to 36.0 | D+21.0 | D+24.6 | R+3.6 | 5.5† | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersJocelyn Benson 53, John James 41; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+12.0 | D+10.8 | D+1.3 | 3.0 | Release |
| Minnesota governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersAmy Klobuchar 53, Lisa Demuth 40; count 55.5 to 42.6 | D+13.0 | D+12.9 | D+0.1 | 3.5 | Release |
| New Mexico governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersDeb Haaland 51, Gregg Hull 44; count 57.4 to 42.6 | D+7.0 | D+14.7 | R+7.7 | 5.5† | Release |
| New York governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersKathy Hochul 52, Bruce Blakeman 43; count 59.9 to 39.9 | D+9.0 | D+19.9 | R+10.9 | 7.6 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersAmy Acton 48, Vivek Ramaswamy 42; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+6.0 | D+7.9 | R+1.9 | 4.4 | Release |
| Pennsylvania governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersJosh Shapiro 59, Stacy Garrity 34; count 60.5 to 38.2 | D+25.0 | D+22.4 | D+2.6 | 0.6 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 450 likely votersGina Hinojosa 44, Greg Abbott 46; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+2.0 | D+7.1 | R+9.1 | 9.0 | Release |
| Wisconsin governorOct 30 to Nov 1 · 450 likely votersDavid Crowley 50, Tom Tiffany 45; count 54.0 to 46.0 | D+5.0 | D+8.0 | R+3.0 | 2.9 | Release |
Releases: Colorado Senate · Florida Senate · Georgia Senate · Illinois Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · New Mexico Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · Colorado governor · Florida governor · Georgia governor · Illinois governor · Michigan governor · Minnesota governor · New Mexico governor · New York governor · Ohio governor · Pennsylvania governor · Texas governor · Wisconsin governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Research Co. on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.