Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
RedBox Research
Ranked 9 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 37 general-election polls this cycle (number 15 of 251 pollsters by volume), 35 of them a final poll of a race. 97% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 35
- Average miss
- 5.0
- Leaned
- R+4.9
- Leader won
- 82%
- Vs. field
- −0.4
- Score
- −0.4
Leaned is over 33 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 34 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 35 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 5 | 4.7 | R+4.3 | 80% | +0.8 | 6 |
| Governor | 6 | 4.1 | R+4.0 | 83% | −0.2 | 7 |
| House districts | 24 | 5.4 | R+5.3 | 83% | −0.7 | 24 |
Its final margins sat 3.3 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 3.6 (11 polls): a ratio of 0.93. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida SenateOct 30 to Oct 31 · 2,898 likely voters · Democratic sponsorAngie Nixon 45, Ashley Moody 47; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+2.0 | R+2.9 | D+0.9 | 3.2 | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive · for A Fight Worth Having |
| Kansas SenateOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,301 likely voters · partisan sponsorAdam Hamilton 45, Roger Marshall 46; count 51.0 to 46.0 | R+1.0 | D+5.1 | R+6.1 | 2.7 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Michigan SenateOct 20 to Oct 23 · 2,696 likely voters · partisan sponsorAbdul El-Sayed 49, Mike Rogers 44; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+5.0 | D+7.0 | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| North Carolina SenateOct 20 to Oct 23 · 3,292 likely voters · partisan sponsorRoy Cooper 50, Michael Whatley 43; count 58.8 to 39.0 | D+7.0 | D+19.7 | R+12.7 | 8.0 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Ohio SenateOct 20 to Oct 23 · 2,998 likely voters · partisan sponsorSherrod Brown 47, Jon Husted 44; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+3.0 | D+4.8 | R+1.9 | 2.6 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Arizona governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 2,686 likely voters · partisan sponsorKatie Hobbs 47, Andy Biggs 42; count 55.6 to 42.4 | D+5.0 | D+13.2 | R+8.2 | 6.1 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida governorOct 30 to Oct 31 · 2,898 likely votersDavid Jolly 46, Byron Donalds 47; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+1.0 | R+1.3 | D+0.3 | 3.4 | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive · for A Fight Worth Having |
| Kansas governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,301 likely voters · partisan sponsorCindy Holscher 46, Ty Masterson 48; count 50.4 to 49.6 | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | R+2.7 | 3.4 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Michigan governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 2,696 likely voters · partisan sponsorJocelyn Benson 49, John James 43; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+6.0 | D+10.8 | R+4.8 | 2.8 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Nevada governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,470 likely voters · partisan sponsorAaron Ford 46, Joe Lombardo 43; count 51.6 to 44.0 | D+3.0 | D+7.6 | R+4.6 | 5.6 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Ohio governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 2,998 likely voters · partisan sponsorAmy Acton 48, Vivek Ramaswamy 44; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+4.0 | D+7.9 | R+3.9 | 4.3 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Arizona 1st DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 851 likely voters · partisan sponsorAmish Shah 49, Thomas "Jay" Feely IV 43; count 52.4 to 45.4 | D+6.0 | D+7.0 | R+1.0 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Arizona 6th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 837 likely voters · partisan sponsorJoAnna Mendoza 47, Juan Ciscomani 43; count 52.9 to 44.8 | D+4.0 | D+8.1 | R+4.1 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| California 7th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 722 likely voters · partisan sponsorDoris Matsui 32, Mai Vang 32; count 53.3 to 46.7 | Even | Matsui +6.6 | 6.6 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| California 11th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 856 likely voters · partisan sponsorScott Wiener 46, Connie Chan 38; count 53.3 to 46.7 | Wiener +8.0 | Wiener +6.7 | 1.3 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| California 48th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,151 likely voters · partisan sponsorMarni von Wilpert 48, Jim Desmond 43; count 59.7 to 40.3 | D+5.0 | D+19.5 | R+14.5 | 14.0 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida 13th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 875 likely voters · partisan sponsorLeela Gray 45, Anna Paulina Luna 48; count 48.7 to 49.5 | R+3.0 | R+0.8 | R+2.2 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida 14th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 708 likely voters · partisan sponsorKathy Castor 46, Mike Beltran 45; count 51.2 to 45.8 | D+1.0 | D+5.3 | R+4.3 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida 22nd DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 550 likely voters · partisan sponsorPia Dandiya 46, Casey Askar 45; count 51.9 to 48.1 | D+1.0 | D+3.8 | R+2.8 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida 25th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 643 likely voters · partisan sponsorJared Moskowitz 46, Scott Singer 40; count 51.2 to 46.6 | D+6.0 | D+4.7 | D+1.4 | 6.5 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Florida 27th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 523 likely voters · partisan sponsor · count not finalEliott Rodriguez 46, Maria Elvira Salazar 49; count 49.8 to 50.2 | R+3.0 | R+0.4 | R+2.6 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Michigan 4th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 787 likely voters · partisan sponsorSean McCann 44, Bill Huizenga 47; count 50.1 to 48.3 | R+3.0 | D+1.8 | R+4.8 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Michigan 10th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 889 likely voters · partisan sponsorChristina Hines 42, Michael Bouchard Jr. 47; count 52.4 to 45.2 | R+5.0 | D+7.2 | R+12.2 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Montana 1st DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 754 likely voters · partisan sponsorSam Forstag 46, Aaron Flint 48; count 50.5 to 46.6 | R+2.0 | D+3.9 | R+5.9 | 5.9 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| North Carolina 1st DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,468 likely voters · partisan sponsorDon Davis 45, Laurie Buckhout 44; count 50.1 to 46.7 | D+1.0 | D+3.4 | R+2.4 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| North Carolina 11th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 873 likely voters · partisan sponsorJamie Ager 50, Jennifer Capps Balkcom 44; count 57.1 to 41.3 | D+6.0 | D+15.8 | R+9.8 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Nevada 3rd DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 687 likely voters · partisan sponsorSusie Lee 49, Martin O'Donnell 42; count 59.6 to 38.1 | D+7.0 | D+21.5 | R+14.5 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| New York 17th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 726 likely voters · partisan sponsorCait Conley 48, Mike Lawler 46; count 53.0 to 46.9 | D+2.0 | D+6.0 | R+4.0 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Ohio 1st DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 821 likely voters · partisan sponsorGreg Landsman 48, Eric Conroy 39; count 54.4 to 42.9 | D+9.0 | D+11.4 | R+2.4 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Ohio 7th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 875 likely voters · partisan sponsorBrian Poindexter 46, Max Miller 42; count 54.9 to 45.0 | D+4.0 | D+9.9 | R+5.9 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Ohio 9th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 858 likely voters · partisan sponsorMarcy Kaptur 49, Derek Merrin 43; count 52.7 to 47.3 | D+6.0 | D+5.5 | D+0.6 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Pennsylvania 1st DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 733 likely voters · partisan sponsorBob Harvie 46, Brian Fitzpatrick 46; count 52.9 to 47.1 | Even | D+5.7 | R+5.7 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Pennsylvania 7th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 644 likely voters · partisan sponsorBob Brooks 49, Ryan Mackenzie 44; count 56.2 to 43.8 | D+5.0 | D+12.4 | R+7.4 | 6.8 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Pennsylvania 8th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 696 likely voters · partisan sponsorPaige Cognetti 49, Rob Bresnahan 45; count 54.5 to 45.5 | D+4.0 | D+9.0 | R+5.0 | 4.9 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
| Pennsylvania 10th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 23 · 1,022 likely voters · partisan sponsorJanelle Stelson 48, Scott Perry 45; count 55.2 to 44.8 | D+3.0 | D+10.4 | R+7.4 | 5.7† | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release · for A Fight Worth Having (super PAC) |
Releases: Florida Senate · Kansas Senate · Michigan Senate · North Carolina Senate · Ohio Senate · Arizona governor · Florida governor · Kansas governor · Michigan governor · Nevada governor · Ohio governor · Arizona 1st District · Arizona 6th District · California 7th District · California 11th District · California 48th District · Florida 13th District · Florida 14th District · Florida 22nd District · Florida 25th District · Florida 27th District · Michigan 4th District · Michigan 10th District · Montana 1st District · North Carolina 1st District · North Carolina 11th District · Nevada 3rd District · New York 17th District · Ohio 1st District · Ohio 7th District · Ohio 9th District · Pennsylvania 1st District · Pennsylvania 7th District · Pennsylvania 8th District · Pennsylvania 10th District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
34 of these 35 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.