Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Public Policy Polling
Ranked 1 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 95 general-election polls this cycle (number 3 of 251 pollsters by volume), 16 of them a final poll of a race. 88% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 16
- Average miss
- 2.8
- Leaned
- R+1.1
- Leader won
- 75%
- Vs. field
- −3.1
- Score
- −2.4
Leaned is over 16 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 14 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 2 of its 16 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| Senate | 1 | 1.3 | R+1.3 | — | 0.0 | 27 |
| Governor | 1 | 7.0 | D+7.0 | 100% | +1.7 | 9 |
| House districts | 14 | 2.6 | R+1.6 | 73% | −3.7 | 51 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska SenateOct 14 to Oct 15 · 578 registered voters · Democratic sponsor · count not finalMary Peltola 48, Dan Sullivan 47; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+1.0 | D+2.3 | R+1.3 | 1.3 | ReleaseFrom Call the Map's poll archive |
| Nebraska governorOct 13 to Oct 14 · 571 likely voters · Democratic sponsorLynne Walz 43, Jim Pillen 44; count 42.5 to 50.5 | R+1.0 | R+8.0 | D+7.0 | 5.2 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Colorado 5th DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · 577 likely voters · Democratic sponsorJessica Killin 47, Jeff Crank 47; count 50.5 to 45.8 | Even | D+4.7 | R+4.7 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Florida 13th DistrictOct 14 to Oct 15 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorLeela Gray 47, Anna Paulina Luna 46; count 48.7 to 49.5 | D+1.0 | R+0.8 | D+1.8 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Florida 25th DistrictOct 26 to Oct 27 · 523 likely voters · Democratic sponsorJared Moskowitz 47, Scott Singer 41; count 51.2 to 46.6 | D+6.0 | D+4.7 | D+1.4 | 6.5 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Kentucky 6th DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorZach Dembo 47, Ralph Alvarado 41; count 52.7 to 43.3 | D+6.0 | D+9.4 | R+3.4 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Minnesota 1st DistrictOct 13 to Oct 14 · likely voters · Democratic sponsor · count not finalJake Johnson 43, Brad Finstad 43; count 50.0 to 49.9 | Even | D+0.1 | R+0.1 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Minnesota 8th DistrictOct 25 to Oct 26 · 585 registered voters · Democratic sponsorTrina Swanson 43, Pete Stauber 49; count 46.9 to 53.0 | R+6.0 | R+6.2 | D+0.2 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
| Missouri 2nd DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorFred Wellman 46, Ann Wagner 45; count 51.1 to 46.2 | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | R+3.9 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Montana 1st DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorSam Forstag 48, Aaron Flint 45; count 50.5 to 46.6 | D+3.0 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 | 7.5 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| North Carolina 9th DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorRichard N. Ojeda II 42, Richard Hudson 46; count 51.1 to 48.9 | R+4.0 | D+2.3 | R+6.3 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Nebraska 1st DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorChris Backemeyer 45, Mike Flood 46; count 46.5 to 50.0 | R+1.0 | R+3.5 | D+2.5 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Nevada 2nd DistrictOct 12 to Oct 13 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorTeresa Benitez-Thompson 44, Dave Flippo 46; count 50.2 to 44.3 | R+2.0 | D+5.8 | R+7.8 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| New York 21st DistrictOct 12 to Oct 13 · likely voters · Democratic sponsorBlake Gendebien 44, Anthony Constantino 46; count 49.0 to 50.8 | R+2.0 | R+1.8 | R+0.2 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| South Carolina 1st DistrictOct 21 to Oct 22 · 770 likely voters · Democratic sponsorNancy Lacore 47, Jenny Costa Honeycutt 45; count 49.7 to 48.6 | D+2.0 | D+1.0 | D+1.0 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
| Virginia 1st DistrictOct 21 to Oct 22 · 570 likely voters · Democratic sponsorShannon L. Taylor 47, Robert J. "Rob" Wittman 46; count 51.3 to 48.4 | D+1.0 | D+2.9 | R+1.9 | 6.1† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table · for House Majority PAC |
Releases: Alaska Senate · Nebraska governor · Colorado 5th District · Florida 13th District · Florida 25th District · Kentucky 6th District · Minnesota 1st District · Minnesota 8th District · Missouri 2nd District · Montana 1st District · North Carolina 9th District · Nebraska 1st District · Nevada 2nd District · New York 21st District · South Carolina 1st District · Virginia 1st District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
16 of these 16 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Public Policy Polling on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.