Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
On Point Polling
Ranked 10 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 24 general-election polls this cycle (number 30 of 251 pollsters by volume), 19 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 19
- Average miss
- 4.3
- Leaned
- R+1.9
- Leader won
- 79%
- Vs. field
- −0.4
- Score
- −0.3
Leaned is over 18 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 19 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 19 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 0.7 | R+0.7 | 100% | −4.5 | 2 |
| Senate | 8 | 3.1 | R+2.3 | 88% | −1.3 | 10 |
| Governor | 8 | 5.3 | R+3.7 | 75% | +0.7 | 10 |
| House districts | 2 | 6.5 | D+6.5 | 50% | +0.9 | 2 |
Its final margins sat 3.1 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 4.7 (10 polls): a ratio of 0.67. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 28 · 672 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 55, Republicans 41.9; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+13.1 | D+13.8 | R+0.7 | 5.3 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 18 · 378 likely votersAngie Nixon 45.8, Ashley Moody 52.5; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+6.7 | R+2.9 | R+3.8 | 3.0 | Release |
| Iowa SenateOct 19 to Oct 21 · 491 likely votersJosh Turek 51.6, Ashley Hinson 46.9; count 50.5 to 46.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.2 | D+0.5 | 4.0 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 19 to Oct 21 · 479 likely votersAdam Hamilton 48.9, Roger Marshall 47.1; count 51.0 to 46.0 | D+1.8 | D+5.1 | R+3.3 | 3.0 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 18 · 518 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 51.7, Mike Rogers 45.4; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+6.3 | D+7.0 | R+0.7 | 2.9 | Release |
| Nebraska SenateOct 27 to Oct 29 · 1,555 likely voters · Democratic sponsorPete Ricketts 47.2, Dan Osborn 48.7; count 50.1 to 43.9 | Osborn +1.5 | Ricketts +6.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | Releasefor Nebraska Democratic Party |
| Ohio SenateOct 16 to Oct 17 · 635 likely votersSherrod Brown 48.4, Jon Husted 44.8; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+3.6 | D+4.8 | R+1.3 | 2.6 | Release |
| South Carolina SenateOct 18 to Oct 19 · 294 likely votersAnnie Andrews 48.5, Darline Graham 45; count 51.1 to 46.6 | D+3.5 | D+4.5 | R+1.0 | 5.3 | Release |
| Texas SenateNov 1 · 544 likely votersJames Talarico 51.6, Ken Paxton 46.1; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+5.5 | D+12.1 | R+6.6 | 8.8 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 18 · 378 likely votersDavid Jolly 44.4, Byron Donalds 48.3; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+3.9 | R+1.3 | R+2.6 | 3.2 | Release |
| Iowa governorOct 19 to Oct 21 · 491 likely votersRob Sand 52, Zach Lahn 47.3; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+4.7 | D+11.1 | R+6.4 | 3.9 | Release |
| Kansas governorOct 19 to Oct 21 · 479 likely votersCindy Holscher 46.3, Ty Masterson 52.8; count 50.4 to 49.6 | R+6.5 | D+0.7 | R+7.2 | 2.9 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 18 · 518 likely votersJocelyn Benson 54.1, John James 42.1; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+12.0 | D+10.8 | D+1.3 | 3.0 | Release |
| Nebraska governorOct 27 to Oct 29 · 1,555 likely voters · Democratic sponsorLynne Walz 46, Jim Pillen 48.8; count 42.5 to 50.5 | R+2.8 | R+8.0 | D+5.2 | 5.5 | Releasefor Nebraska Democratic Party |
| Ohio governorOct 16 to Oct 17 · 635 likely votersAmy Acton 49.2, Vivek Ramaswamy 45.7; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+3.5 | D+7.9 | R+4.4 | 4.3 | Release |
| South Carolina governorOct 18 to Oct 19 · 294 likely votersJermaine Johnson 44.9, Alan Wilson 53.1; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+8.2 | R+4.5 | R+3.8 | 5.4 | Release |
| Texas governorNov 1 · 544 likely votersGina Hinojosa 47, Greg Abbott 51.6; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+4.6 | D+7.1 | R+11.7 | 8.9 | Release |
| Nebraska 1st DistrictOct 27 to Oct 28 · 487 likely voters · Democratic sponsorChris Backemeyer 50.8, Mike Flood 44.9; count 46.5 to 50.0 | D+5.9 | R+3.5 | D+9.4 | 5.6† | Releasefor Nebraska Democratic Party |
| Nebraska 2nd DistrictOct 27 to Oct 28 · 515 likely voters · Democratic sponsorDenise Powell 58.8, Brinker Harding 39.3; count 56.6 to 40.8 | D+19.5 | D+15.9 | D+3.6 | 5.6† | Releasefor Nebraska Democratic Party |
Releases: National House vote · Florida Senate · Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Michigan Senate · Nebraska Senate · Ohio Senate · South Carolina Senate · Texas Senate · Florida governor · Iowa governor · Kansas governor · Michigan governor · Nebraska governor · Ohio governor · South Carolina governor · Texas governor · Nebraska 1st District · Nebraska 2nd District
Entered from the pollster's release, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
4 of these 19 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.