Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Noble Predictive Insights
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 17 general-election polls this cycle (number 42 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 7.4
- Leaned
- R+7.4
- Leader won
- 75%
- Vs. field
- +2.2
- Score
- +0.6
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 6 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 2 | 7.4 | R+7.4 | 75% | +2.2 | 11 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona governorOct 26 to Oct 28 · 511 likely votersKatie Hobbs 51, Andy Biggs 45; count 55.6 to 42.4 | D+6.0 | D+13.2 | R+7.2 | 6.4 | Release |
| Nevada governorOct 26 to Oct 28 · 487 likely votersAaron Ford 47, Joe Lombardo 47; count 51.6 to 44.0 | Even | D+7.6 | R+7.6 | 4.1 | Release |
Releases: Arizona governor · Nevada governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.