Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group
Ranked 4 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 6 general-election polls this cycle (number 94 of 251 pollsters by volume), 6 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 6
- Average miss
- 3.8
- Leaned
- R+3.4
- Leader won
- 83%
- Vs. field
- −1.8
- Score
- −1.0
Leaned is over 6 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 6 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 3 | 3.5 | R+2.7 | 100% | −1.6 | 3 |
| Governor | 3 | 4.0 | R+4.0 | 67% | −2.0 | 3 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa SenateOct 9 to Oct 13 · 602 likely votersJosh Turek 46, Ashley Hinson 44; count 50.5 to 46.3 | D+2.0 | D+4.2 | R+2.2 | 3.9 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
| Ohio SenateOct 9 to Oct 13 · 959 likely votersSherrod Brown 49, Jon Husted 43; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+6.0 | D+4.8 | D+1.1 | 2.6 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
| Texas SenateOct 9 to Oct 13 · 934 likely votersJames Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 44; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+5.0 | D+12.1 | R+7.1 | 8.8 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
| Iowa governorOct 9 to Oct 13 · 602 likely votersRob Sand 54, Zach Lahn 43; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+11.0 | D+11.1 | R+0.1 | 4.8 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
| Ohio governorOct 9 to Oct 13 · 959 likely votersAmy Acton 49, Vivek Ramaswamy 44; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+5.0 | D+7.9 | R+2.9 | 4.4 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
| Texas governorOct 9 to Oct 13 · 934 likely votersGina Hinojosa 46, Greg Abbott 48; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+2.0 | D+7.1 | R+9.1 | 9.0 | Releasefor Cook Political Report |
Releases: Iowa Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · Iowa governor · Ohio governor · Texas governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.