Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
National Public Affairs
Ranked 11 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 14 general-election polls this cycle (number 53 of 251 pollsters by volume), 5 of them a final poll of a race. 100% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 5
- Average miss
- 4.6
- Leaned
- R+4.0
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −0.6
- Score
- −0.3
Leaned is over 4 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 5 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 2 | 5.5 | R+7.8 | 100% | −0.3 | 6 |
| Governor | 3 | 4.0 | R+2.7 | 100% | −0.8 | 7 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska SenateOct 25 to Oct 29 · 800 likely voters · Republican sponsorPete Ricketts 48, Dan Osborn 45; count 50.1 to 43.9 | Ricketts +3.0 | Ricketts +6.2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | Releasefor God, Family, & Country PAC |
| New Hampshire SenateOct 25 to Oct 29 · 800 likely voters · Republican sponsorChris Pappas 51, John E. Sununu 45; count 55.9 to 42.1 | D+6.0 | D+13.8 | R+7.8 | 5.7 | Releasefor God, Family, & Country PAC |
| Nebraska governorOct 15 to Oct 18 · 598 likely voters · Republican sponsorLynne Walz 41, Jim Pillen 47; count 42.5 to 50.5 | R+6.0 | R+8.0 | D+2.0 | 5.9 | Releasefor God, Family, & Country PAC |
| New Hampshire governorOct 25 to Oct 29 · 800 likely voters · Republican sponsorCinde Warmington 43, Kelly Ayotte 52; count 47.0 to 51.4 | R+9.0 | R+4.4 | R+4.6 | 3.3 | Releasefor God, Family, & Country PAC |
| South Carolina governorOct 13 to Oct 16 · 604 likely voters · Republican sponsorJermaine Johnson 41, Alan Wilson 51; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+10.0 | R+4.5 | R+5.5 | 5.2 | Release |
Releases: Nebraska Senate · New Hampshire Senate · Nebraska governor · New Hampshire governor · South Carolina governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
5 of these 5 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.