Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Montana State University Billings
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 3 general-election polls this cycle (number 141 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 11.5
- Leaned
- D+14.0
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +5.6
- Score
- +2.1
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 6.4 | — | 100% | −2.2 | 1 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| House districts | 2 | 14.0 | D+14.0 | 100% | +9.6 | 2 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana SenateOct 5 to Oct 21 · 720 adultsKurt Alme 30, Seth Bodnar 26; count 48.2 to 37.7 | Alme +4.0 | Alme +10.4 | 6.4 | 8.6 | Release |
| Montana 1st DistrictOct 5 to Oct 21 · 287 adultsSam Forstag 49, Aaron Flint 32; count 50.5 to 46.6 | D+17.0 | D+3.9 | D+13.1 | 3.4 | Release |
| Montana 2nd DistrictOct 5 to Oct 21 · 350 adultsBrian J Miller 18, Troy Downing 29; count 32.3 to 58.1 | R+11.0 | R+25.9 | D+14.8 | 5.4† | Release |
Releases: Montana Senate · Montana 1st District · Montana 2nd District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.