Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 5 general-election polls this cycle (number 109 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 3.1
- Leaned
- R+1.4
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +0.3
- Score
- +0.1
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 4.5 | R+4.5 | 100% | +1.8 | 2 |
| Governor | 1 | 1.6 | D+1.6 | 100% | −1.3 | 3 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan SenateOct 2 to Oct 19 · 836 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 48, Mike Rogers 45.5; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+2.5 | D+7.0 | R+4.5 | 2.7 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 2 to Oct 19 · 836 likely votersJocelyn Benson 53.3, John James 40.9; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+12.4 | D+10.8 | D+1.6 | 2.9 | Release |
Releases: Michigan Senate · Michigan governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.