Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Mason-Dixon
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 11 general-election polls this cycle (number 66 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 2.9
- Leaned
- D+3.3
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −6.8
- Score
- −2.6
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 2.0 | — | 100% | −8.3 | 5 |
| Governor | 1 | 6.4 | D+6.4 | 100% | −6.6 | 5 |
| House districts | 1 | 0.2 | D+0.2 | 100% | −5.5 | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota SenateOct 12 to Oct 14 · 500 likely votersMike Rounds 56.4, Brian L Bengs 37.4; count 60.5 to 39.5 | Rounds +19.0 | Rounds +21.0 | 2.0 | 10.3 | Releasefor Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota | South Dakota News Watch |
| South Dakota governorOct 12 to Oct 14 · 500 likely votersDan Ahlers 35.6, Larry Rhoden 56.2; count 36.5 to 63.5 | R+20.6 | R+27.0 | D+6.4 | 13.0 | Releasefor Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota | South Dakota News Watch |
| South Dakota at largeOct 12 to Oct 14 · 500 likely votersNicole "Nikki" Gronli 31.8, Marty Jackley 59.6; count 36.0 to 64.0 | R+27.8 | R+28.0 | D+0.2 | 5.7† | Releasefor Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota | South Dakota News Watch |
Releases: South Dakota Senate · South Dakota governor · South Dakota at large
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.