Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Marist University
Ranked 23 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 28 general-election polls this cycle (number 21 of 251 pollsters by volume), 8 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 8
- Average miss
- 5.9
- Leaned
- R+5.9
- Leader won
- 94%
- Vs. field
- +1.6
- Score
- +0.9
Leaned is over 8 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 8 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 8 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 5.8 | R+5.8 | 100% | +0.8 | 5 |
| Senate | 3 | 3.3 | R+3.3 | 100% | +0.5 | 10 |
| Governor | 4 | 7.9 | R+7.9 | 88% | +2.6 | 13 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 19 to Oct 20 · 1,289 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 52, Republicans 44; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+8.0 | D+13.8 | R+5.8 | 5.1 | Releasefor NPR | PBS News |
| Maine SenateOct 22 to Oct 25 · 1,449 likely votersTroy Jackson 49, Susan Collins 47; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+2.0 | D+6.1 | R+4.1 | 3.2 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 15 to Oct 18 · 1,185 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 50, Mike Rogers 48; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+2.0 | D+7.0 | R+5.0 | 2.7 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 15 to Oct 18 · 1,176 likely votersSherrod Brown 48, Jon Husted 44; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+4.0 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 | 2.6 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 22 to Oct 25 · 1,449 likely votersHannah Pingree 44, Bobby Charles 44; count 54.4 to 37.5 | Even | D+16.9 | R+16.9 | 5.9 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 15 to Oct 18 · 1,185 likely votersJocelyn Benson 51, John James 45; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+6.0 | D+10.8 | R+4.8 | 2.8 | Release |
| New York governorOct 22 to Oct 25 · 1,448 likely votersKathy Hochul 53, Bruce Blakeman 42; count 59.9 to 39.9 | D+11.0 | D+19.9 | R+8.9 | 8.0 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 15 to Oct 18 · 1,176 likely votersAmy Acton 50, Vivek Ramaswamy 43; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+7.0 | D+7.9 | R+0.9 | 4.5 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Ohio Senate · Maine governor · Michigan governor · New York governor · Ohio governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.