Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Kreate Strategies
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 6 general-election polls this cycle (number 92 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race. 50% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 8.8
- Leaned
- R+8.8
- Leader won
- 67%
- Vs. field
- +0.8
- Score
- +0.3
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 9.1 | R+9.1 | 100% | +0.3 | 1 |
| Governor | 2 | 8.6 | R+8.6 | 50% | +1.0 | 5 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas SenateOct 27 to Oct 30 · 900 likely votersJames Talarico 48, Ken Paxton 45; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+3.0 | D+12.1 | R+9.1 | 8.7 | Release |
| Arizona governorOct 25 to Oct 27 · 900 likely voters · Republican sponsorKatie Hobbs 48.27, Andy Biggs 43.14; count 55.6 to 42.4 | D+5.1 | D+13.2 | R+8.1 | 6.2 | Releasefor American Encore |
| Texas governorOct 27 to Oct 30 · 900 likely votersGina Hinojosa 47, Greg Abbott 49; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+2.0 | D+7.1 | R+9.1 | 9.0 | Release |
Releases: Texas Senate · Arizona governor · Texas governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
1 of these 3 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.