Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Keating Research, Inc.
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 4 general-election polls this cycle (number 124 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 3.0
- Leaned
- R+3.0
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −4.5
- Score
- −1.7
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 4.5 | R+4.5 | 100% | −1.0 | 1 |
| Governor | 1 | 1.9 | R+1.9 | 100% | −9.3 | 1 |
| House districts | 1 | 2.6 | R+2.6 | 100% | −3.1 | 2 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado SenateNov 1 to Nov 2 · 400 likely votersJohn Hickenlooper 58, Mark Baisley 37; count 60.5 to 35.0 | D+21.0 | D+25.5 | R+4.5 | 5.5 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release |
| Colorado governorNov 1 to Nov 2 · 400 likely votersPhil Weiser 59, Victor Marx 33; count 61.1 to 33.2 | D+26.0 | D+27.9 | R+1.9 | 11.2 | ReleaseEntered from the pollster's release |
| Arizona 1st DistrictOct 26 to Oct 28 · 500 likely votersAmish Shah 49.4, Thomas "Jay" Feely IV 45; count 52.4 to 45.4 | D+4.4 | D+7.0 | R+2.6 | 5.7† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
Releases: Colorado Senate · Colorado governor · Arizona 1st District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.