Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
InsiderAdvantage
Ranked 24 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 36 general-election polls this cycle (number 16 of 251 pollsters by volume), 13 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 13
- Average miss
- 5.9
- Leaned
- R+5.9
- Leader won
- 75%
- Vs. field
- +1.5
- Score
- +1.1
Leaned is over 13 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 12 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 13 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 10 | 6.0 | R+6.0 | 67% | +1.9 | 28 |
| Governor | 3 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | 100% | 0.0 | 8 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Its final margins sat 2.5 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 2.9 (9 polls): a ratio of 0.85. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,200 likely voters · count not finalMary Peltola 48.3, Dan Sullivan 48.1; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+0.2 | D+2.3 | R+2.1 | 1.1 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 28 to Oct 29 · 1,200 likely votersAngie Nixon 42.7, Ashley Moody 48.5; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+5.8 | R+2.9 | R+2.9 | 3.1 | Release |
| Georgia SenateOct 31 to Nov 2 · 2,500 likely votersJon Ossoff 52.7, Mike Collins 46; count 59.0 to 41.0 | D+6.7 | D+18.1 | R+11.4 | 8.4 | Releasefor James Magazine Online |
| Iowa SenateOct 21 to Oct 22 · 1,200 likely votersJosh Turek 45.5, Ashley Hinson 47; count 50.5 to 46.3 | R+1.5 | D+4.2 | R+5.7 | 3.5 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 13 to Oct 14 · 1,200 likely votersAdam Hamilton 46.6, Roger Marshall 47.7; count 51.0 to 46.0 | R+1.1 | D+5.1 | R+6.2 | 2.7 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 13 to Oct 14 · 1,200 likely votersTroy Jackson 49.3, Susan Collins 46.8; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+2.5 | D+6.1 | R+3.6 | 3.2 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 21 to Oct 22 · 1,200 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 47.2, Mike Rogers 46; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+1.2 | D+7.0 | R+5.8 | 2.6 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 29 to Oct 30 · 1,200 likely votersPeggy Flanagan 49.3, Michele Tafoya 46.4; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+2.9 | D+10.2 | R+7.3 | 5.2 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 29 to Oct 30 · 1,200 likely votersSherrod Brown 48.8, Jon Husted 47; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+1.8 | D+4.8 | R+3.0 | 2.5 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 13 to Oct 14 · 1,200 likely votersJames Talarico 48.1, Ken Paxton 48.5; count 55.1 to 43.0 | R+0.4 | D+12.1 | R+12.5 | 8.6 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 28 to Oct 29 · 1,200 likely votersDavid Jolly 44.9, Byron Donalds 49; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+4.1 | R+1.3 | R+2.8 | 3.2 | Release |
| Georgia governorOct 31 to Nov 2 · 2,500 likely votersKeisha Lance Bottoms 49.3, Rick Jackson 49; count 54.3 to 45.7 | D+0.3 | D+8.7 | R+8.4 | 8.9 | Releasefor James Magazine Online |
| Ohio governorOct 29 to Oct 30 · 1,200 likely votersAmy Acton 49.2, Vivek Ramaswamy 46.3; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+2.9 | D+7.9 | R+5.0 | 4.2 | Release |
Releases: Alaska Senate · Florida Senate · Georgia Senate · Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · Florida governor · Georgia governor · Ohio governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: InsiderAdvantage on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.