Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 14 general-election polls this cycle (number 52 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 5.2
- Leaned
- R+5.2
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −0.3
- Score
- −0.1
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 2 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 6.8 | R+6.8 | 100% | +1.8 | 13 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 1 | 3.6 | R+3.6 | 100% | −2.5 | 1 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 28 to Oct 30 · 1,000 registered voters · count not finalDemocrats 52, Republicans 45; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+7.0 | D+13.8 | R+6.8 | 5.0 | Releasefor NBC News |
| Nevada governorOct 20 to Oct 25 · 950 likely voters · Democratic sponsorAaron Ford 49, Joe Lombardo 45; count 51.6 to 44.0 | D+4.0 | D+7.6 | R+3.6 | 6.1 | Releasefor A More Affordable Nevada |
Releases: National House vote · Nevada governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
1 of these 2 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.