Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Grayhouse
Scored, not ranked: 4 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 17 general-election polls this cycle (number 41 of 251 pollsters by volume), 4 of them a final poll of a race. 65% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 4
- Average miss
- 5.2
- Leaned
- R+6.2
- Leader won
- 75%
- Vs. field
- +0.1
- Score
- 0.0
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 4 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 3 |
| Senate | 3 | 4.2 | R+5.2 | 67% | −0.6 | 6 |
| Governor | 1 | 8.2 | R+8.2 | 100% | +2.1 | 7 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas SenateOct 27 to Oct 28 · 509 likely voters · Republican sponsorHallie Shoffner 39, Tom Cotton 55; count 42.4 to 54.3 | R+16.0 | R+11.8 | R+4.2 | 5.0† | Releasefor America One Policies |
| Iowa SenateOct 28 to Oct 31 · 601 likely votersJosh Turek 46, Ashley Hinson 48; count 50.5 to 46.3 | R+2.0 | D+4.2 | R+6.2 | 3.5 | Release |
| Nebraska SenateOct 29 to Nov 1 · 534 likely votersPete Ricketts 50, Dan Osborn 46; count 50.1 to 43.9 | Ricketts +4.0 | Ricketts +6.2 | 2.2 | 6.0 | Release |
| Arizona governorOct 28 to Oct 29 · 500 likely voters · Republican sponsorKatie Hobbs 50, Andy Biggs 45; count 55.6 to 42.4 | D+5.0 | D+13.2 | R+8.2 | 6.1 | Release |
Releases: Arkansas Senate · Iowa Senate · Nebraska Senate · Arizona governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
2 of these 4 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.