Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Emerson College
Ranked 8 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 93 general-election polls this cycle (number 4 of 251 pollsters by volume), 24 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 24
- Average miss
- 5.3
- Leaned
- R+3.6
- Leader won
- 83%
- Vs. field
- −0.6
- Score
- −0.5
Leaned is over 23 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 23 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 2 of its 24 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 3.8 | R+3.8 | 100% | −1.3 | 18 |
| Senate | 6 | 7.0 | R+5.8 | 67% | +2.4 | 26 |
| Governor | 7 | 6.7 | R+4.4 | 71% | 0.0 | 33 |
| House districts | 10 | 3.6 | R+2.0 | 100% | −2.7 | 16 |
Its final margins sat 4.0 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 4.2 (8 polls): a ratio of 0.95. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 24 to Oct 26 · 1,000 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 52.4, Republicans 42.4; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+10.0 | D+13.8 | R+3.8 | 5.1 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 26 to Oct 28 · 800 likely votersAdam Hamilton 49.5, Roger Marshall 47.1; count 51.0 to 46.0 | D+2.4 | D+5.1 | R+2.7 | 3.0 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 600 likely votersTroy Jackson 49.4, Susan Collins 50.6; count 53.0 to 47.0 | R+1.2 | D+6.1 | R+7.3 | 2.9 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Michigan SenateNov 1 · 500 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 51.2, Mike Rogers 45.2; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+6.0 | D+7.0 | R+1.0 | 2.9 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Ohio SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 930 likely votersSherrod Brown 45.8, Jon Husted 48.3; count 50.0 to 45.1 | R+2.5 | D+4.8 | R+7.3 | 2.3 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| South Dakota SenateOct 19 to Oct 21 · 803 likely votersMike Rounds 54, Brian L Bengs 46; count 60.5 to 39.5 | Rounds +8.0 | Rounds +21.0 | 13.0 | 7.5 | Releasefor KELO-TV |
| Texas SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 500 likely votersJames Talarico 49.8, Ken Paxton 48.4; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+1.4 | D+12.1 | R+10.7 | 8.7 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| California governorOct 17 to Oct 19 · 1,000 likely votersXavier Becerra 63.63, Steve Hilton 36.37; count 65.6 to 34.4 | D+27.3 | D+31.2 | R+3.9 | 8.7 | Release |
| Kansas governorOct 26 to Oct 28 · 800 likely votersCindy Holscher 47.5, Ty Masterson 52.5; count 50.4 to 49.6 | R+5.0 | D+0.7 | R+5.7 | 3.1 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 31 to Nov 1 · 600 likely votersHannah Pingree 50.3, Bobby Charles 40.5; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+9.8 | D+16.9 | R+7.1 | 6.8 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Michigan governorNov 1 · 500 likely votersJocelyn Benson 50.4, John James 45.8; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+4.6 | D+10.8 | R+6.2 | 2.7 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Ohio governorOct 31 to Nov 1 · 930 likely votersAmy Acton 48.4, Vivek Ramaswamy 48.3; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+0.1 | D+7.9 | R+7.8 | 4.1 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| South Dakota governorOct 19 to Oct 21 · 803 likely votersDan Ahlers 40.5, Larry Rhoden 59.5; count 36.5 to 63.5 | R+19.0 | R+27.0 | D+8.0 | 12.2 | Releasefor KELO-TV |
| Texas governorOct 31 to Nov 1 · 500 likely votersGina Hinojosa 48.9, Greg Abbott 49.7; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+0.8 | D+7.1 | R+7.9 | 9.1 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Arkansas 2nd DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 383 likely votersChris Jones 48, French Hill 52; count 49.1 to 50.9 | R+4.0 | R+1.7 | R+2.3 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Arizona 2nd DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 345 likely voters · count not finalJonathan Nez 50, Eli Crane 48; count 48.5 to 49.6 | D+2.0 | R+1.1 | D+3.0 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Florida 14th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 315 likely votersKathy Castor 48, Mike Beltran 43; count 51.2 to 45.8 | D+5.0 | D+5.3 | R+0.3 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Iowa 2nd DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 344 likely votersLindsay James 50, Joe Mitchell 47; count 49.5 to 45.5 | D+3.0 | D+4.0 | R+1.0 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Michigan 7th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 314 likely votersWilliam Lawrence 53, Tom Barrett 45; count 51.0 to 47.7 | D+8.0 | D+3.3 | D+4.7 | 5.8† | Release |
| Missouri 2nd DistrictOct 31 to Nov 1 · 413 likely votersFred Wellman 49.5, Ann Wagner 48.7; count 51.1 to 46.2 | D+0.8 | D+4.9 | R+4.1 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Montana 1st DistrictOct 31 to Nov 1 · 311 likely votersSam Forstag 48.8, Aaron Flint 48.5; count 50.5 to 46.6 | D+0.3 | D+3.9 | R+3.6 | 6.6 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| North Carolina 11th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 388 likely votersJamie Ager 56, Jennifer Capps Balkcom 43; count 57.1 to 41.3 | D+13.0 | D+15.8 | R+2.8 | 5.8† | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Pennsylvania 8th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 396 likely votersPaige Cognetti 52, Rob Bresnahan 48; count 54.5 to 45.5 | D+4.0 | D+9.0 | R+5.0 | 4.9 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
| Texas 35th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 14 · 417 likely votersJohnny C. Garcia 51, Carlos De La Cruz 49; count 55.4 to 44.6 | D+2.0 | D+10.9 | R+8.9 | 10.4 | Releasefor Poll Vault |
Releases: National House vote · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Ohio Senate · South Dakota Senate · Texas Senate · California governor · Kansas governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · Ohio governor · South Dakota governor · Texas governor · Arkansas 2nd District · Arizona 2nd District · Florida 14th District · Iowa 2nd District · Michigan 7th District · Missouri 2nd District · Montana 1st District · North Carolina 11th District · Pennsylvania 8th District · Texas 35th District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Emerson College on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.