Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
DCCC Targeting Team
Ranked 15 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 14 general-election polls this cycle (number 50 of 251 pollsters by volume), 7 of them a final poll of a race. 100% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 7
- Average miss
- 6.0
- Leaned
- R+3.8
- Leader won
- 64%
- Vs. field
- +0.4
- Score
- +0.2
Leaned is over 7 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 7 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| House districts | 7 | 6.0 | R+3.8 | 64% | +0.4 | 14 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado 3rd DistrictOct 20 to Oct 21 · 402 likely voters · Democratic sponsorDwayne L. Romero 47, Jeff Hurd 46; count 47.4 to 49.3 | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | D+2.8 | 5.6† | Release |
| Florida 7th DistrictOct 17 to Oct 19 · 414 likely voters · Democratic sponsorBale Dalton 45, Ryan Elijah 45; count 49.2 to 49.7 | Even | R+0.5 | D+0.5 | 5.6† | Release |
| Kansas 2nd DistrictOct 19 to Oct 20 · 639 likely voters · Democratic sponsorDon Coover 46, Derek Schmidt 49; count 45.0 to 51.2 | R+3.0 | R+6.2 | D+3.2 | 5.6† | Release |
| Ohio 10th DistrictOct 12 to Oct 13 · 535 likely voters · Democratic sponsorKristina Knickerbocker 47, Mike Turner 44; count 49.3 to 47.7 | D+3.0 | D+1.6 | D+1.4 | 5.6† | Release |
| Texas 9th DistrictOct 20 to Oct 22 · 490 likely voters · Democratic sponsorLeticia Gutierrez 47, Alex Mealer 48; count 57.5 to 42.5 | R+1.0 | D+15.1 | R+16.1 | 5.6† | Release |
| Texas 28th DistrictOct 7 to Oct 13 · 536 likely voters · Democratic sponsorHenry Cuellar 54, Tano E. Tijerina 34; count 65.8 to 29.6 | D+20.0 | D+36.1 | R+16.1 | 5.6† | Release |
| Virginia 1st DistrictOct 24 to Oct 25 · 478 likely voters · Democratic sponsorShannon L. Taylor 48, Robert J. "Rob" Wittman 47; count 51.3 to 48.4 | D+1.0 | D+2.9 | R+1.9 | 5.6† | Release |
Releases: Colorado 3rd District · Florida 7th District · Kansas 2nd District · Ohio 10th District · Texas 9th District · Texas 28th District · Virginia 1st District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
7 of these 7 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.