Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
David Binder Research
Scored, not ranked: 1 final poll, and a rank takes 5. 1 general-election polls this cycle (number 200 of 251 pollsters by volume), 1 of them a final poll of a race. 100% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 1
- Average miss
- 5.6
- Leaned
- —
- Leader won
- —
- Vs. field
- −0.1
- Score
- 0.0
Leaned is over 0 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 0 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its poll is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| House districts | 1 | 5.6 | — | — | −0.1 | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California 4th DistrictOct 15 to Oct 21 · 600 likely voters · Democratic sponsor · count not finalEric Jones 45, Mike Thompson 35; count 52.2 to 47.8 | Jones +10.0 | Jones +4.4 | 5.6 | 5.6† | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
Releases: California 4th District
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
1 of these 1 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.