Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Data for Progress
Ranked 7 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 25 general-election polls this cycle (number 26 of 251 pollsters by volume), 9 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 9
- Average miss
- 3.6
- Leaned
- R+3.7
- Leader won
- 83%
- Vs. field
- −1.1
- Score
- −0.7
Leaned is over 8 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 6 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 3 of its 9 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| Senate | 4 | 3.2 | R+2.9 | 100% | −0.9 | 9 |
| Governor | 4 | 4.5 | R+4.5 | 67% | −1.0 | 7 |
| House districts | 1 | 1.4 | — | — | −2.6 | 7 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska SenateOct 8 to Oct 16 · 694 likely voters · count not finalMary Peltola 47, Dan Sullivan 44; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+3.0 | D+2.3 | D+0.7 | 1.4 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 23 to Oct 27 · 652 likely votersTroy Jackson 50, Susan Collins 45; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+5.0 | D+6.1 | R+1.1 | 3.4 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 23 to Oct 25 · 622 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 50, Mike Rogers 46; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+4.0 | D+7.0 | R+3.0 | 2.8 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 23 to Oct 26 · 712 likely votersJames Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 45; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+4.0 | D+12.1 | R+8.1 | 8.8 | Release |
| Alaska governorOct 8 to Oct 16 · 694 likely voters · count not finalJonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins 46, Bernadette M. Wilson 28; count 50.2 to 28.8 | D+18.0 | D+21.4 | R+3.4 | 3.3 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 23 to Oct 27 · 652 likely votersHannah Pingree 49, Bobby Charles 37; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+12.0 | D+16.9 | R+4.9 | 7.0 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 23 to Oct 25 · 622 likely votersJocelyn Benson 52, John James 43; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+9.0 | D+10.8 | R+1.8 | 2.9 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 23 to Oct 26 · 712 likely votersGina Hinojosa 47, Greg Abbott 48; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+1.0 | D+7.1 | R+8.1 | 9.1 | Release |
| Alaska at largeOct 8 to Oct 16 · 694 likely voters · count not finalNick Begich III 48, Bill Hill 42; count 48.6 to 41.2 | Begich +6.0 | Begich +7.4 | 1.4 | 4.1 | Release |
Releases: Alaska Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Texas Senate · Alaska governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · Texas governor · Alaska at large
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Data for Progress on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.