Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
co/efficient
Scored, not ranked: 4 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 49 general-election polls this cycle (number 8 of 251 pollsters by volume), 4 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 4
- Average miss
- 6.3
- Leaned
- R+6.3
- Leader won
- 75%
- Vs. field
- +3.0
- Score
- +1.3
Leaned is over 4 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 4 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 3 |
| Senate | 2 | 5.7 | R+5.7 | 50% | +2.5 | 14 |
| Governor | 2 | 6.9 | R+6.9 | 100% | +3.5 | 23 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 9 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida SenateOct 18 to Oct 20 · 1,014 likely votersAngie Nixon 40, Ashley Moody 48; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+8.0 | R+2.9 | R+5.1 | 2.9 | Release |
| Iowa SenateOct 28 · 1,020 likely votersJosh Turek 46, Ashley Hinson 48; count 50.5 to 46.3 | R+2.0 | D+4.2 | R+6.2 | 3.5 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 18 to Oct 20 · 1,014 likely votersDavid Jolly 40, Byron Donalds 49; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+9.0 | R+1.3 | R+7.7 | 2.9 | Release |
| Iowa governorOct 28 · 1,020 likely votersRob Sand 50, Zach Lahn 45; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+5.0 | D+11.1 | R+6.1 | 3.9 | Release |
Releases: Florida Senate · Iowa Senate · Florida governor · Iowa governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: co/efficient on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.