Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Change Research
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 44 general-election polls this cycle (number 12 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race. 66% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 4.6
- Leaned
- R+4.6
- Leader won
- 67%
- Vs. field
- −0.6
- Score
- −0.3
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 3 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 2.8 | R+2.8 | 100% | −2.3 | 14 |
| Senate | 1 | 3.8 | R+3.8 | 0% | −1.3 | 18 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 5 |
| House districts | 1 | 7.3 | R+7.3 | 100% | +1.7 | 7 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 12 to Oct 18 · 2,240 registered voters · count not finalDemocrats 50, Republicans 39; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+11.0 | D+13.8 | R+2.8 | 5.2 | Release |
| Mississippi SenateOct 21 to Oct 22 · 842 likely voters · Democratic sponsorScott Colom 40, Cindy Hyde-Smith 43; count 49.3 to 48.6 | R+3.0 | D+0.8 | R+3.8 | 5.0† | Releasefor Government that Works PAC |
| Washington 3rd DistrictOct 19 to Oct 21 · 551 likely voters · Democratic sponsorMarie Gluesenkamp Perez 45, John Braun 44; count 53.7 to 45.4 | D+1.0 | D+8.3 | R+7.3 | 5.6† | Releasefor Northwest Progressive Institute |
Releases: National House vote · Mississippi Senate · Washington 3rd District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
2 of these 3 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Change Research on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.