Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Big Data Poll
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 26 general-election polls this cycle (number 25 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 2.5
- Leaned
- R+2.5
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −1.3
- Score
- −0.5
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 3 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 1.5 | R+1.5 | 100% | −3.7 | 15 |
| Senate | 1 | 4.0 | R+4.0 | 100% | +1.0 | 7 |
| Governor | 1 | 1.9 | R+1.9 | 100% | −1.4 | 4 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 27 to Oct 30 · 3,214 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 52.3, Republicans 40; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+12.3 | D+13.8 | R+1.5 | 5.2 | Releasefor Public Polling Project |
| Florida SenateOct 26 to Oct 30 · 1,067 likely votersAngie Nixon 44.7, Ashley Moody 51.6; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+6.9 | R+2.9 | R+4.0 | 3.0 | Releasefor 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project |
| Florida governorOct 26 to Oct 30 · 1,067 likely votersDavid Jolly 44.2, Byron Donalds 47.4; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+3.2 | R+1.3 | R+1.9 | 3.3 | Releasefor 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project |
Releases: National House vote · Florida Senate · Florida governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.