Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center
Scored, not ranked: 3 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 16 general-election polls this cycle (number 46 of 251 pollsters by volume), 3 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 3
- Average miss
- 12.6
- Leaned
- R+12.6
- Leader won
- 67%
- Vs. field
- +4.9
- Score
- +1.8
Leaned is over 3 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 3 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 10.1 | R+10.1 | 100% | +1.4 | 5 |
| Governor | 1 | 10.1 | R+10.1 | 0% | +1.1 | 4 |
| House districts | 1 | 17.6 | R+17.6 | 100% | +12.2 | 7 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas SenateOct 21 to Oct 25 · 2,000 likely votersJames Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 47; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+2.0 | D+12.1 | R+10.1 | 8.7 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 21 to Oct 25 · 2,000 likely votersGina Hinojosa 47, Greg Abbott 50; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+3.0 | D+7.1 | R+10.1 | 9.0 | Release |
| Texas 15th DistrictOct 13 to Oct 16 · likely votersBobby Pulido 51, Monica De La Cruz 44; count 62.3 to 37.7 | D+7.0 | D+24.6 | R+17.6 | 5.5† | Releasefor San Antonio Express-News |
Releases: Texas Senate · Texas governor · Texas 15th District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.