Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
AtlasIntel
Ranked 6 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 27 general-election polls this cycle (number 22 of 251 pollsters by volume), 20 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 20
- Average miss
- 3.5
- Leaned
- R+1.8
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −1.0
- Score
- −0.8
Leaned is over 19 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 17 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 4 of its 20 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 0.3 | D+0.3 | 100% | −5.0 | 6 |
| Senate | 10 | 3.5 | R+1.4 | 100% | −1.1 | 10 |
| Governor | 8 | 3.5 | R+2.6 | 100% | −1.3 | 10 |
| House districts | 1 | 7.5 | — | — | +6.5 | 1 |
Its final margins sat 4.0 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 3.4 (13 polls): a ratio of 1.17. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 28 to Nov 1 · 3,566 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 55.5, Republicans 41.4; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+14.1 | D+13.8 | D+0.3 | 5.3 | Release |
| Alaska SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 522 likely voters · count not finalMary Peltola 50.1, Dan Sullivan 44.6; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+5.5 | D+2.3 | D+3.2 | 1.0 | Release |
| Iowa SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,219 likely votersJosh Turek 50.5, Ashley Hinson 46.4; count 50.5 to 46.3 | D+4.1 | D+4.2 | R+0.1 | 4.1 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 2,038 likely votersAdam Hamilton 51.9, Roger Marshall 44.9; count 51.0 to 46.0 | D+7.0 | D+5.1 | D+1.9 | 3.1 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 967 likely votersTroy Jackson 53.1, Susan Collins 44; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+9.1 | D+6.1 | D+3.0 | 3.3 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,316 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 53.5, Mike Rogers 46.4; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+7.1 | D+7.0 | D+0.1 | 2.9 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 2,133 likely votersPeggy Flanagan 48.1, Michele Tafoya 45.7; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+2.4 | D+10.2 | R+7.8 | 5.1 | Release |
| North Carolina SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,459 likely votersRoy Cooper 56.4, Michael Whatley 41.5; count 58.8 to 39.0 | D+14.9 | D+19.7 | R+4.8 | 9.1 | Release |
| New Hampshire SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,057 likely votersChris Pappas 52.3, John E. Sununu 44.2; count 55.9 to 42.1 | D+8.1 | D+13.8 | R+5.7 | 6.2 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,801 likely votersSherrod Brown 51.4, Jon Husted 43.9; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+7.5 | D+4.8 | D+2.6 | 2.5 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,678 adultsJames Talarico 51.3, Ken Paxton 45.4; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+5.9 | D+12.1 | R+6.2 | 8.9 | Release |
| Alaska governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 522 likely voters · count not finalJonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins 51.5, Bernadette M. Wilson 34; count 50.2 to 28.8 | D+17.5 | D+21.4 | R+3.9 | 3.2 | Release |
| Iowa governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,219 likely votersRob Sand 54.1, Zach Lahn 44; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+10.1 | D+11.1 | R+1.0 | 4.6 | Release |
| Kansas governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 2,038 likely votersCindy Holscher 49.9, Ty Masterson 45.6; count 50.4 to 49.6 | D+4.3 | D+0.7 | D+3.6 | 3.3 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 967 likely votersHannah Pingree 49.5, Bobby Charles 42.1; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+7.4 | D+16.9 | R+9.5 | 6.5 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,316 likely votersJocelyn Benson 53.2, John James 45.2; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+8.0 | D+10.8 | R+2.8 | 2.9 | Release |
| New Hampshire governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,057 likely votersCinde Warmington 43.8, Kelly Ayotte 49.7; count 47.0 to 51.4 | R+5.9 | R+4.4 | R+1.5 | 4.0 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,801 likely votersAmy Acton 51.8, Vivek Ramaswamy 43.9; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+7.9 | D+7.9 | Even | 4.5 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 28 to Nov 1 · 1,678 adultsGina Hinojosa 49.2, Greg Abbott 47.6; count 52.8 to 45.7 | D+1.6 | D+7.1 | R+5.5 | 9.2 | Release |
| Alaska at largeOct 28 to Nov 1 · 522 likely voters · count not finalNick Begich III 46.5, Bill Hill 46.6; count 48.6 to 41.2 | Hill +0.1 | Begich +7.4 | 7.5 | 1.0 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Alaska Senate · Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · North Carolina Senate · New Hampshire Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · Alaska governor · Iowa governor · Kansas governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · New Hampshire governor · Ohio governor · Texas governor · Alaska at large
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: AtlasIntel on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.