Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
ActiVote
Ranked 17 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 34 general-election polls this cycle (number 18 of 251 pollsters by volume), 15 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 15
- Average miss
- 6.6
- Leaned
- R+6.5
- Leader won
- 87%
- Vs. field
- +0.5
- Score
- +0.4
Leaned is over 15 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 15 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 15 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 6.8 | R+6.8 | 100% | +1.8 | 9 |
| Senate | 6 | 7.6 | R+7.6 | 100% | +1.4 | 11 |
| Governor | 8 | 5.8 | R+5.7 | 75% | −0.4 | 14 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 22 to Oct 30 · 2,000 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 53.5, Republicans 46.5; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+7.0 | D+13.8 | R+6.8 | 5.0 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 17 to Oct 27 · 400 likely votersAngie Nixon 47, Ashley Moody 53; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 | 3.1 | Release |
| Georgia SenateOct 6 to Oct 20 · 400 likely votersJon Ossoff 54, Mike Collins 46; count 59.0 to 41.0 | D+8.0 | D+18.1 | R+10.1 | 8.7 | Release |
| Illinois SenateOct 21 to Oct 30 · 400 likely votersJuliana Stratton 55.6, Don Tracy 44.4; count 61.9 to 36.5 | D+11.2 | D+25.3 | R+14.1 | 5.0† | Release |
| North Carolina SenateOct 8 to Oct 20 · 400 likely votersRoy Cooper 56.9, Michael Whatley 43.1; count 58.8 to 39.0 | D+13.8 | D+19.7 | R+5.9 | 8.9 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 18 to Oct 31 · 400 likely votersSherrod Brown 50.2, Jon Husted 49.8; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+0.4 | D+4.8 | R+4.5 | 2.4 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 22 to Oct 28 · 400 likely votersJames Talarico 52.1, Ken Paxton 47.9; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+4.2 | D+12.1 | R+7.9 | 8.8 | Release |
| California governorOct 17 to Oct 31 · 400 likely votersXavier Becerra 63.2, Steve Hilton 36.8; count 65.6 to 34.4 | D+26.4 | D+31.2 | R+4.8 | 8.5 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 20 to Oct 31 · 400 likely votersDavid Jolly 47.7, Byron Donalds 52.3; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+4.6 | R+1.3 | R+3.3 | 3.2 | Release |
| Georgia governorOct 6 to Oct 20 · 400 likely votersKeisha Lance Bottoms 48.5, Rick Jackson 51.5; count 54.3 to 45.7 | R+3.0 | D+8.7 | R+11.7 | 8.4 | Release |
| Illinois governorOct 23 to Oct 31 · 400 likely votersJB Pritzker 59, Darren Bailey 41; count 60.6 to 36.0 | D+18.0 | D+24.6 | R+6.6 | 5.5† | Release |
| New York governorOct 1 to Oct 23 · 400 likely votersKathy Hochul 59, Bruce Blakeman 41; count 59.9 to 39.9 | D+18.0 | D+19.9 | R+1.9 | 9.4 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 16 to Oct 31 · 400 likely votersAmy Acton 50.8, Vivek Ramaswamy 49.2; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+1.6 | D+7.9 | R+6.3 | 4.2 | Release |
| Pennsylvania governorOct 1 to Oct 21 · 400 likely votersJosh Shapiro 61.5, Stacy Garrity 38.5; count 60.5 to 38.2 | D+23.0 | D+22.4 | D+0.6 | 1.6 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 23 to Oct 29 · 400 likely votersGina Hinojosa 47.9, Greg Abbott 52.1; count 52.8 to 45.7 | R+4.2 | D+7.1 | R+11.3 | 8.9 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Florida Senate · Georgia Senate · Illinois Senate · North Carolina Senate · Ohio Senate · Texas Senate · California governor · Florida governor · Georgia governor · Illinois governor · New York governor · Ohio governor · Pennsylvania governor · Texas governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: ActiVote on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.