Draw a November

The forecast simulates election night 100,000 times. Each edition keeps every 50th simulation whole, 2,000 of them, with the winner of every race in it, and this page draws from those. The Senate, House and governor results on a card come from the same simulation, so they move together the way the forecast says they should. Every count of how rare a night is uses the same 2,000 nights, and says so.

Who counts as a Democratic seat. The Senate count includes the two sitting independents who caucus with the Democrats, and, where no Democrat is on the ballot, the independent who runs in that place (Osborn in Nebraska, Achilles in Idaho, Bengs in South Dakota), as in our published chance of control. They are named as independents and drawn in the independent’s color. Where an independent runs beside a Democrat, the simulations record only whether the Democrat won: when the Democrat loses Montana’s Senate race or Alaska’s House seat, the card names both the Republican and the independent and does not say which of them won.

Governors are included, because the kept simulations carry every governor’s race with the Senate and House. The count is of the 36 races on the ballot this year.

A seat changes hands when the party that wins it in the draw is not the party that holds it now. A close race held is one our forecast rates Toss-up, Tilt or Lean that the holding party keeps in the draw.

A link to a night names the forecast edition it came from, so it opens the same night after the forecast moves on, for as long as we keep that edition.